
. use "C:\Papers\TimeSeriesPaperMR\Box-SteffensmeierDarmofalFarrell.dta", clear

. set matsize 800

Current memory allocation

                    current                                 memory usage
    settable          value     description                 (1M = 1024k)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    set maxvar         5000     max. variables allowed           1.733M
    set memory           50M    max. data space                 50.000M
    set matsize         800     max. RHS vars in models          4.950M
                                                            -----------
                                                                56.682M

. var fdposbush fdposgore negbush fdneggore lnbexp fdlngexp fdexpectedvote, exo
> g(repconv demconv debate1 debate2 debate3 latesept lastweek) lags(1/12)

Vector autoregression

Sample:       25       125                         No. of obs      =       101
Log likelihood = -1771.267                         AIC             =  47.82706
FPE            =  8.41e+15                         HQIC            =  54.57743
Det(Sigma_ml)  =   4030687                         SBIC            =  64.50169

Equation           Parms      RMSE     R-sq      chi2     P>chi2
----------------------------------------------------------------
fdposbush            92       230.2   0.9311   1364.258   0.0000
fdposgore            92     239.125   0.9156   1095.279   0.0000
negbush              92     120.182   0.9419   1636.786   0.0000
fdneggore            92     93.0161   0.8994   902.7573   0.0000
lnbexp               92     2.99537   0.9508   1952.319   0.0000
fdlngexp             92     1.30327   0.9566   2227.271   0.0000
fdexpectedvote       92     .034594   0.9111   1035.693   0.0000
----------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
fdposbush    |
   fdposbush |
         L1. |   -.219825   .1846608    -1.19   0.234    -.5817535    .1421035
         L2. |  -1.083279   .2265398    -4.78   0.000    -1.527289    -.639269
         L3. |  -.8129472    .196166    -4.14   0.000    -1.197425    -.428469
         L4. |  -.7454358   .1900134    -3.92   0.000    -1.117855   -.3730163
         L5. |   -.709933   .1867993    -3.80   0.000    -1.076053   -.3438131
         L6. |  -1.443051   .1970144    -7.32   0.000    -1.829193    -1.05691
         L7. |  -1.087487   .2309857    -4.71   0.000    -1.540211   -.6347637
         L8. |  -1.350563   .1611281    -8.38   0.000    -1.666368   -1.034758
         L9. |  -.1415417   .1499999    -0.94   0.345    -.4355361    .1524527
        L10. |  -.8243777   .1702344    -4.84   0.000    -1.158031   -.4907245
        L11. |   .7113712   .1532214     4.64   0.000     .4110628     1.01168
        L12. |   .3635583   .1193542     3.05   0.002     .1296283    .5974883
   fdposgore |
         L1. |   .6637503   .1382051     4.80   0.000     .3928732    .9346274
         L2. |  -.3140906   .1607839    -1.95   0.051    -.6292212    .0010401
         L3. |    .103113   .1060905     0.97   0.331    -.1048204    .3110465
         L4. |   .2606656   .1287396     2.02   0.043     .0083406    .5129905
         L5. |   .1799499   .1286956     1.40   0.162    -.0722889    .4321887
         L6. |   .1115748    .145039     0.77   0.442    -.1726964     .395846
         L7. |   .2263459   .1200924     1.88   0.059    -.0090309    .4617227
         L8. |   .0682104   .1257787     0.54   0.588    -.1783113     .314732
         L9. |   .1616248    .133147     1.21   0.225    -.0993386    .4225882
        L10. |  -.2743573   .1388229    -1.98   0.048    -.5464452   -.0022693
        L11. |   .4180595   .1347934     3.10   0.002     .1538692    .6822497
        L12. |  -.0943694   .1080787    -0.87   0.383    -.3061998     .117461
     negbush |
         L1. |   .4299178   .2916942     1.47   0.141    -.1417923    1.001628
         L2. |  -.0578546   .3516413    -0.16   0.869    -.7470589    .6313498
         L3. |  -.2997291   .3084358    -0.97   0.331    -.9042522    .3047939
         L4. |   .0078999   .2989104     0.03   0.979    -.5779537    .5937535
         L5. |   .1895416   .2646402     0.72   0.474    -.3291437    .7082268
         L6. |   1.054759   .2491996     4.23   0.000     .5663366    1.543181
         L7. |   .5319734   .3335211     1.60   0.111    -.1217158    1.185663
         L8. |   1.107478   .2544148     4.35   0.000     .6088344    1.606122
         L9. |  -1.126833   .2903147    -3.88   0.000    -1.695839   -.5578269
        L10. |   -1.36328   .3323212    -4.10   0.000    -2.014617    -.711942
        L11. |  -1.706904   .3738995    -4.57   0.000    -2.439733   -.9740741
        L12. |  -1.218919   .3516207    -3.47   0.001    -1.908082   -.5297548
   fdneggore |
         L1. |  -2.422584   .4234599    -5.72   0.000     -3.25255   -1.592618
         L2. |  -.6477619    .503076    -1.29   0.198    -1.633773    .3382489
         L3. |   .5321404   .3950898     1.35   0.178    -.2422214    1.306502
         L4. |  -.9766039   .3890661    -2.51   0.012    -1.739159   -.2140484
         L5. |  -.7013053   .4099615    -1.71   0.087    -1.504815    .1022046
         L6. |   -1.32872   .3002929    -4.42   0.000    -1.917283    -.740157
         L7. |  -.1777312   .2765795    -0.64   0.520    -.7198171    .3643547
         L8. |   .1290963   .3934561     0.33   0.743    -.6420635    .9002561
         L9. |   .1520391   .4928631     0.31   0.758    -.8139548    1.118033
        L10. |    .081309   .4483063     0.18   0.856    -.7973553    .9599732
        L11. |   -2.16301   .4036616    -5.36   0.000    -2.954172   -1.371848
        L12. |  -1.122311   .2723808    -4.12   0.000    -1.656167   -.5884541
      lnbexp |
         L1. |    31.9037     8.4401     3.78   0.000      15.3614    48.44599
         L2. |  -4.942206   9.359485    -0.53   0.597    -23.28646    13.40205
         L3. |   12.05676   6.568528     1.84   0.066    -.8173155    24.93084
         L4. |   44.64988   6.444483     6.93   0.000     32.01893    57.28084
         L5. |   42.75317   8.172071     5.23   0.000      26.7362    58.77013
         L6. |  -4.222714   8.745725    -0.48   0.629    -21.36402    12.91859
         L7. |   27.52098   8.276413     3.33   0.001     11.29951    43.74245
         L8. |   .5143943   9.271538     0.06   0.956    -17.65749    18.68627
         L9. |   34.61786    10.0437     3.45   0.001     14.93256    54.30316
        L10. |   .0691327     5.9542     0.01   0.991    -11.60089    11.73915
        L11. |   29.40627   6.552402     4.49   0.000      16.5638    42.24874
        L12. |   10.84177     7.3077     1.48   0.138    -3.481057     25.1646
    fdlngexp |
         L1. |   3.188399   14.67306     0.22   0.828    -25.57028    31.94707
         L2. |   48.28565    14.4468     3.34   0.001     19.97044    76.60086
         L3. |   31.61886    14.8622     2.13   0.033     2.489491    60.74823
         L4. |   63.85449   18.50913     3.45   0.001     27.57726    100.1317
         L5. |  -26.76943   22.22456    -1.20   0.228    -70.32877    16.78991
         L6. |   66.51989   17.73454     3.75   0.000     31.76083     101.279
         L7. |   24.21503   18.88759     1.28   0.200    -12.80396    61.23402
         L8. |   3.585344   18.24159     0.20   0.844    -32.16752     39.3382
         L9. |   34.02854   15.17486     2.24   0.025     4.286351    63.77073
        L10. |    -4.8223    15.0823    -0.32   0.749    -34.38307    24.73847
        L11. |  -80.65637   13.42894    -6.01   0.000    -106.9766   -54.33613
        L12. |   25.99232   11.10337     2.34   0.019     4.230117    47.75453
fdexpected~e |
         L1. |   1129.013   607.6518     1.86   0.063    -61.96217    2319.989
         L2. |   2286.557   564.3654     4.05   0.000     1180.421    3392.693
         L3. |    733.829   594.5577     1.23   0.217    -431.4827    1899.141
         L4. |   1041.883   501.6569     2.08   0.038     58.65305    2025.112
         L5. |  -1179.079   540.6263    -2.18   0.029    -2238.687   -119.4713
         L6. |    458.544   450.2827     1.02   0.309    -423.9938    1341.082
         L7. |   2343.043   503.1019     4.66   0.000     1356.981    3329.104
         L8. |   2315.689   551.3179     4.20   0.000     1235.125    3396.252
         L9. |   738.3098   617.6694     1.20   0.232       -472.3     1948.92
        L10. |   3389.391   562.9566     6.02   0.000     2286.016    4492.766
        L11. |   1161.303   566.1729     2.05   0.040     51.62408    2270.981
        L12. |   3862.816   578.6619     6.68   0.000     2728.659    4996.972
     repconv |     817.61   259.2003     3.15   0.002     309.5867    1325.633
     demconv |   -589.495    190.046    -3.10   0.002    -961.9784   -217.0117
     debate1 |   -187.378    109.154    -1.72   0.086    -401.3159    26.55991
     debate2 |   259.9004   182.9967     1.42   0.156    -98.76659    618.5673
     debate3 |  -348.7541   108.9374    -3.20   0.001    -562.2675   -135.2407
    latesept |  -228.8451   72.58838    -3.15   0.002    -371.1157   -86.57445
    lastweek |  -7.978745   224.0813    -0.04   0.972    -447.1701    431.2126
       _cons |  -3884.773   960.4831    -4.04   0.000    -5767.285   -2002.261
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
fdposgore    |
   fdposbush |
         L1. |   .3617196   .1918205     1.89   0.059    -.0142417    .7376809
         L2. |  -.5335005   .2353233    -2.27   0.023    -.9947257   -.0722754
         L3. |  -.5850504   .2037718    -2.87   0.004    -.9844358    -.185665
         L4. |  -.8852827   .1973807    -4.49   0.000    -1.272142   -.4984237
         L5. |  -.3021956    .194042    -1.56   0.119    -.6825109    .0781197
         L6. |  -.3682333   .2046531    -1.80   0.072    -.7693461    .0328795
         L7. |   .9873576   .2399416     4.11   0.000     .5170807    1.457634
         L8. |   .5022913   .1673754     3.00   0.003     .1742415    .8303411
         L9. |   .4690255   .1558158     3.01   0.003     .1636323    .7744188
        L10. |   .6835333   .1768347     3.87   0.000     .3369436    1.030123
        L11. |    .169849   .1591621     1.07   0.286     -.142103    .4818011
        L12. |   .7581012   .1239819     6.11   0.000     .5151012    1.001101
   fdposgore |
         L1. |  -.0773483   .1435637    -0.54   0.590    -.3587279    .2040314
         L2. |  -.2959252   .1670179    -1.77   0.076    -.6232742    .0314238
         L3. |  -.4754751   .1102038    -4.31   0.000    -.6914706   -.2594795
         L4. |  -.2914001   .1337311    -2.18   0.029    -.5535083   -.0292919
         L5. |   .4738242   .1336855     3.54   0.000     .2118055    .7358429
         L6. |   .0299203   .1506625     0.20   0.843    -.2653727    .3252134
         L7. |  -.1804945   .1247487    -1.45   0.148    -.4249975    .0640084
         L8. |    .295124   .1306554     2.26   0.024     .0390441    .5512039
         L9. |   .6143702   .1383095     4.44   0.000     .3432886    .8854518
        L10. |   .0906315   .1442054     0.63   0.530     -.192006    .3732689
        L11. |   .2194796   .1400197     1.57   0.117    -.0549539    .4939132
        L12. |    .706029   .1122692     6.29   0.000     .4859854    .9260725
     negbush |
         L1. |   .1849152   .3030038     0.61   0.542    -.4089614    .7787919
         L2. |   1.445712   .3652753     3.96   0.000     .7297852    2.161638
         L3. |   .9686236   .3203946     3.02   0.003     .3406618    1.596585
         L4. |   2.019431   .3104998     6.50   0.000     1.410863       2.628
         L5. |   .9151098   .2749009     3.33   0.001      .376314    1.453906
         L6. |   .4378581   .2588617     1.69   0.091    -.0695014    .9452177
         L7. |  -2.141676   .3464525    -6.18   0.000     -2.82071   -1.462641
         L8. |  -.8264394    .264279    -3.13   0.002    -1.344417    -.308462
         L9. |   .3727196   .3015708     1.24   0.216    -.2183484    .9637876
        L10. |  -.8985397   .3452061    -2.60   0.009    -1.575131   -.2219482
        L11. |  -2.019211   .3883965    -5.20   0.000    -2.780454   -1.257968
        L12. |  -1.736465   .3652538    -4.75   0.000    -2.452349   -1.020581
   fdneggore |
         L1. |   .0479161   .4398785     0.11   0.913    -.8142298    .9100621
         L2. |  -1.131484   .5225814    -2.17   0.030    -2.155725    -.107243
         L3. |  -1.164326   .4104084    -2.84   0.005    -1.968712   -.3599405
         L4. |  -.8224773   .4041511    -2.04   0.042    -1.614599   -.0303557
         L5. |   .0716671   .4258567     0.17   0.866    -.7629967    .9063309
         L6. |  -.7339957   .3119359    -2.35   0.019    -1.345379   -.1226125
         L7. |   .3279383   .2873032     1.14   0.254    -.2351656    .8910421
         L8. |   -.058798   .4087113    -0.14   0.886    -.8598575    .7422615
         L9. |   -1.15652   .5119726    -2.26   0.024    -2.159968   -.1530725
        L10. |   1.823838   .4656882     3.92   0.000      .911106     2.73657
        L11. |   2.007632   .4193125     4.79   0.000     1.185795     2.82947
        L12. |   .2391213   .2829417     0.85   0.398    -.3154341    .7936768
      lnbexp |
         L1. |  -4.580506   8.767343    -0.52   0.601    -21.76418    12.60317
         L2. |  -28.20597   9.722375    -2.90   0.004    -47.26148    -9.15047
         L3. |  -31.60095   6.823205    -4.63   0.000    -44.97419   -18.22771
         L4. |  -62.13012   6.694351    -9.28   0.000     -75.2508   -49.00943
         L5. |  -10.63521   8.488921    -1.25   0.210    -27.27319    6.002769
         L6. |  -24.88451   9.084817    -2.74   0.006    -42.69042   -7.078594
         L7. |  -13.33173   8.597309    -1.55   0.121    -30.18215    3.518682
         L8. |   2.038455   9.631017     0.21   0.832    -16.83799     20.9149
         L9. |   28.63813   10.43312     2.74   0.006     8.189584    49.08667
        L10. |   23.34377   6.185059     3.77   0.000     11.22128    35.46626
        L11. |  -13.05323   6.806454    -1.92   0.055    -26.39364     .287172
        L12. |   7.495433   7.591037     0.99   0.323    -7.382726    22.37359
    fdlngexp |
         L1. |  -50.78063   15.24197    -3.33   0.001    -80.65435   -20.90692
         L2. |  -97.83877   15.00694    -6.52   0.000    -127.2518   -68.42571
         L3. |  -73.28955   15.43844    -4.75   0.000    -103.5483   -43.03077
         L4. |  -13.42901   19.22678    -0.70   0.485     -51.1128    24.25478
         L5. |  -73.89096   23.08626    -3.20   0.001    -119.1392   -28.64272
         L6. |   -56.9573   18.42215    -3.09   0.002    -93.06406   -20.85055
         L7. |   -94.0526    19.6199    -4.79   0.000    -132.5069    -55.5983
         L8. |   -99.2438   18.94886    -5.24   0.000    -136.3829   -62.10472
         L9. |  -49.60337   15.76323    -3.15   0.002    -80.49874   -18.70801
        L10. |  -36.21308   15.66708    -2.31   0.021       -66.92   -5.506166
        L11. |  -28.60089   13.94961    -2.05   0.040    -55.94163   -1.260158
        L12. |   22.57153   11.53387     1.96   0.050    -.0344458    45.17751
fdexpected~e |
         L1. |  -827.6973   631.2119    -1.31   0.190     -2064.85    409.4552
         L2. |  -1552.421   586.2472    -2.65   0.008    -2701.445   -403.3978
         L3. |   1218.687   617.6101     1.97   0.048     8.193826    2429.181
         L4. |   1236.797   521.1073     2.37   0.018     215.4458    2258.149
         L5. |  -2226.475   561.5876    -3.96   0.000    -3327.166   -1125.783
         L6. |  -477.3432   467.7412    -1.02   0.307    -1394.099    439.4126
         L7. |  -2874.728   522.6083    -5.50   0.000    -3899.022   -1850.435
         L8. |  -1437.509   572.6938    -2.51   0.012    -2559.968   -315.0498
         L9. |  -1766.827   641.6179    -2.75   0.006    -3024.375   -509.2791
        L10. |   960.5725   584.7838     1.64   0.100    -185.5827    2106.728
        L11. |  -5283.255   588.1248    -8.98   0.000    -6435.959   -4130.552
        L12. |   517.4682    601.098     0.86   0.389    -660.6623    1695.599
     repconv |   145.7297   269.2501     0.54   0.588    -381.9908    673.4503
     demconv |  -967.1236   197.4145    -4.90   0.000    -1354.049   -580.1982
     debate1 |   91.42946   113.3862     0.81   0.420    -130.8033    313.6622
     debate2 |  -505.9887   190.0919    -2.66   0.008    -878.5621   -133.4154
     debate3 |  -238.2021   113.1612    -2.10   0.035     -459.994    -16.4103
    latesept |  -295.1487    75.4028    -3.91   0.000    -442.9355   -147.3619
    lastweek |  -250.3091   232.7695    -1.08   0.282    -706.5289    205.9108
       _cons |   5478.716   997.7233     5.49   0.000     3523.214    7434.218
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
negbush      |
   fdposbush |
         L1. |  -.0934154   .0964073    -0.97   0.333    -.2823702    .0955394
         L2. |  -.0933814   .1182714    -0.79   0.430     -.325189    .1384263
         L3. |  -.4963703   .1024139    -4.85   0.000    -.6970978   -.2956427
         L4. |  -.2976928   .0992018    -3.00   0.003    -.4921247   -.1032609
         L5. |  -.3123947   .0975238    -3.20   0.001    -.5035378   -.1212516
         L6. |  -.6050008   .1028568    -5.88   0.000    -.8065965   -.4034051
         L7. |  -.3874624   .1205925    -3.21   0.001    -.6238194   -.1511054
         L8. |  -.3291842   .0841214    -3.91   0.000    -.4940591   -.1643092
         L9. |   .1158688   .0783116     1.48   0.139    -.0376192    .2693567
        L10. |  -.3513213   .0888756    -3.95   0.000    -.5255142   -.1771284
        L11. |   .2165017   .0799935     2.71   0.007     .0597173     .373286
        L12. |   .2172371   .0623122     3.49   0.000     .0951074    .3393667
   fdposgore |
         L1. |   .1880123   .0721538     2.61   0.009     .0465934    .3294312
         L2. |   .1026547   .0839417     1.22   0.221     -.061868    .2671774
         L3. |   .0263662   .0553875     0.48   0.634    -.0821912    .1349237
         L4. |   .1443321   .0672121     2.15   0.032     .0125989    .2760654
         L5. |   .1674536   .0671891     2.49   0.013     .0357653    .2991419
         L6. |   .0759506   .0757216     1.00   0.316    -.0724611    .2243622
         L7. |   .0657073   .0626976     1.05   0.295    -.0571777    .1885923
         L8. |   .0105478   .0656662     0.16   0.872    -.1181557    .1392513
         L9. |   .1945038   .0695131     2.80   0.005     .0582607     .330747
        L10. |  -.1233171   .0724764    -1.70   0.089    -.2653682     .018734
        L11. |    .090121   .0703726     1.28   0.200    -.0478069    .2280488
        L12. |  -.0134201   .0564255    -0.24   0.812    -.1240121    .0971718
     negbush |
         L1. |   .3548702    .152287     2.33   0.020     .0563931    .6533473
         L2. |   -.198385   .1835841    -1.08   0.280    -.5582033    .1614332
         L3. |   .1156915   .1610275     0.72   0.472    -.1999166    .4312995
         L4. |   .1190563   .1560545     0.76   0.446    -.1868048    .4249174
         L5. |    .150539   .1381627     1.09   0.276     -.120255     .421333
         L6. |    .470227   .1301016     3.61   0.000     .2152326    .7252214
         L7. |   .1955009   .1741239     1.12   0.262    -.1457757    .5367775
         L8. |   .1287571   .1328243     0.97   0.332    -.1315738    .3890879
         L9. |   -.545517   .1515668    -3.60   0.000    -.8425826   -.2484515
        L10. |  -.2991745   .1734975    -1.72   0.085    -.6392233    .0408744
        L11. |  -.4432208   .1952046    -2.27   0.023    -.8258148   -.0606268
        L12. |   -.602672   .1835733    -3.28   0.001    -.9624691   -.2428749
   fdneggore |
         L1. |  -.9448765    .221079    -4.27   0.000    -1.378183   -.5115696
         L2. |  -.7674085   .2626448    -2.92   0.003    -1.282183   -.2526342
         L3. |  -.1116658   .2062676    -0.54   0.588    -.5159428    .2926113
         L4. |  -.2411484   .2031227    -1.19   0.235    -.6392617    .1569648
         L5. |   -.259582   .2140318    -1.21   0.225    -.6790766    .1599126
         L6. |  -.5278445   .1567762    -3.37   0.001    -.8351202   -.2205687
         L7. |   -.326727    .144396    -2.26   0.024     -.609738    -.043716
         L8. |   -.509015   .2054147    -2.48   0.013    -.9116204   -.1064097
         L9. |  -.1838147   .2573129    -0.71   0.475    -.6881386    .3205092
        L10. |  -.3279001   .2340508    -1.40   0.161    -.7866311     .130831
        L11. |  -.6513117   .2107427    -3.09   0.002     -1.06436   -.2382636
        L12. |  -.9161224    .142204    -6.44   0.000    -1.194837   -.6374078
      lnbexp |
         L1. |      17.89   4.406388     4.06   0.000     9.253634    26.52636
         L2. |    2.34166   4.886379     0.48   0.632    -7.235467    11.91879
         L3. |  -8.601919   3.429282    -2.51   0.012    -15.32319   -1.880649
         L4. |   13.62913   3.364521     4.05   0.000      7.03479    20.22347
         L5. |   14.61873   4.266456     3.43   0.001     6.256628    22.98083
         L6. |    4.91987   4.565948     1.08   0.281    -4.029223    13.86896
         L7. |    13.9124   4.320931     3.22   0.001     5.443531    22.38127
         L8. |   .6017314   4.840464     0.12   0.901    -8.885403    10.08887
         L9. |   15.23254   5.243594     2.90   0.004     4.955285     25.5098
        L10. |   9.900878   3.108555     3.19   0.001     3.808221    15.99353
        L11. |   9.977511   3.420863     2.92   0.004     3.272742    16.68228
        L12. |  -3.534829   3.815187    -0.93   0.354    -11.01246    3.942801
    fdlngexp |
         L1. |   -2.22439    7.66048    -0.29   0.772    -17.23865    12.78987
         L2. |    7.97228   7.542353     1.06   0.291    -6.810461    22.75502
         L3. |  -1.020512   7.759221    -0.13   0.895    -16.22831    14.18728
         L4. |   33.71877   9.663207     3.49   0.000     14.77924    52.65831
         L5. |  -.3731051   11.60295    -0.03   0.974    -23.11447    22.36826
         L6. |   21.51846    9.25881     2.32   0.020     3.371528    39.66539
         L7. |   1.207464   9.860789     0.12   0.903    -18.11933    20.53426
         L8. |  -2.513091   9.523528    -0.26   0.792    -21.17886    16.15268
         L9. |   20.65379   7.922459     2.61   0.009     5.126058    36.18153
        L10. |   8.345996   7.874136     1.06   0.289    -7.087026    23.77902
        L11. |  -30.28428    7.01095    -4.32   0.000    -44.02549   -16.54307
        L12. |   28.83386   5.796823     4.97   0.000     17.47229    40.19542
fdexpected~e |
         L1. |  -254.5134   317.2415    -0.80   0.422    -876.2953    367.2684
         L2. |   582.7471   294.6426     1.98   0.048     5.258187    1160.236
         L3. |   -76.9745   310.4054    -0.25   0.804    -685.3578    531.4088
         L4. |   9.542192   261.9039     0.04   0.971      -503.78    522.8644
         L5. |  -203.6172   282.2489    -0.72   0.471     -756.815    349.5805
         L6. |  -719.9198   235.0826    -3.06   0.002    -1180.673   -259.1665
         L7. |   1688.904   262.6583     6.43   0.000     1174.103    2203.705
         L8. |   567.2319   287.8308     1.97   0.049     3.093861     1131.37
         L9. |    874.881   322.4715     2.71   0.007     242.8485    1506.913
        L10. |   1425.402   293.9071     4.85   0.000     849.3547    2001.449
        L11. |  -302.6566   295.5863    -1.02   0.306    -881.9951    276.6818
        L12. |   1256.801   302.1065     4.16   0.000     664.6828    1848.919
     repconv |   309.4924   135.3227     2.29   0.022     44.26474      574.72
     demconv |  -48.59034   99.21879    -0.49   0.624    -243.0556    145.8749
     debate1 |  -130.4045   56.98687    -2.29   0.022    -242.0967   -18.71229
     debate2 |   59.16979   95.53851     0.62   0.536    -128.0822    246.4218
     debate3 |  -121.1258    56.8738    -2.13   0.033    -232.5964   -9.655227
    latesept |  -111.9397   37.89678    -2.95   0.003     -186.216   -37.66336
    lastweek |   46.78231   116.9879     0.40   0.689    -182.5097    276.0743
       _cons |  -1393.155   501.4468    -2.78   0.005    -2375.973   -410.3371
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
fdneggore    |
   fdposbush |
         L1. |  -.0323039   .0746152    -0.43   0.665    -.1785469    .1139392
         L2. |  -.1778046   .0915371    -1.94   0.052     -.357214    .0016048
         L3. |  -.0281054    .079264    -0.35   0.723    -.1834601    .1272493
         L4. |  -.1310278    .076778    -1.71   0.088    -.2815099    .0194543
         L5. |  -.0095865   .0754793    -0.13   0.899    -.1575233    .1383502
         L6. |  -.1216059   .0796069    -1.53   0.127    -.2776325    .0344207
         L7. |   .0362969   .0933335     0.39   0.697    -.1466335    .2192272
         L8. |   .1127271   .0651064     1.73   0.083    -.0148792    .2403334
         L9. |   .0979602   .0606099     1.62   0.106     -.020833    .2167535
        L10. |   .1967029    .068786     2.86   0.004     .0618849    .3315208
        L11. |   .1034774   .0619116     1.67   0.095    -.0178671    .2248219
        L12. |   .2355903    .048227     4.89   0.000     .1410671    .3301135
   fdposgore |
         L1. |   .0462836    .055844     0.83   0.407    -.0631687    .1557359
         L2. |   .0080653   .0649673     0.12   0.901    -.1192683     .135399
         L3. |   .1407826   .0428676     3.28   0.001     .0567637    .2248015
         L4. |  -.0471726   .0520193    -0.91   0.364    -.1491286    .0547834
         L5. |   .2291445   .0520016     4.41   0.000     .1272233    .3310657
         L6. |   .1409157   .0586054     2.40   0.016     .0260514    .2557801
         L7. |   .0086887   .0485253     0.18   0.858    -.0864191    .1037966
         L8. |   .1496346   .0508229     2.94   0.003     .0500235    .2492457
         L9. |   .2715339   .0538002     5.05   0.000     .1660874    .3769804
        L10. |   .1766254   .0560937     3.15   0.002     .0666838    .2865669
        L11. |   .1734138   .0544655     3.18   0.001     .0666634    .2801642
        L12. |    .166062    .043671     3.80   0.000     .0804685    .2516555
     negbush |
         L1. |   .2500725   .1178638     2.12   0.034     .0190638    .4810813
         L2. |    .414334   .1420864     2.92   0.004     .1358498    .6928182
         L3. |   .0508979   .1246285     0.41   0.683    -.1933694    .2951653
         L4. |   .3083044   .1207796     2.55   0.011     .0715808    .5450281
         L5. |    .178666   .1069322     1.67   0.095    -.0309172    .3882492
         L6. |   .2581836   .1006931     2.56   0.010     .0608286    .4555385
         L7. |   .0404499   .1347646     0.30   0.764    -.2236838    .3045837
         L8. |  -.2906442   .1028004    -2.83   0.005    -.4921293   -.0891591
         L9. |  -.1766878   .1173063    -1.51   0.132     -.406604    .0532284
        L10. |  -.2467536   .1342798    -1.84   0.066    -.5099371    .0164299
        L11. |  -.5145398   .1510802    -3.41   0.001    -.8106515   -.2184282
        L12. |  -.5002234    .142078    -3.52   0.000    -.7786913   -.2217556
   fdneggore |
         L1. |   -.551243   .1711059    -3.22   0.001    -.8866043   -.2158817
         L2. |  -.5761325    .203276    -2.83   0.005    -.9745462   -.1777189
         L3. |  -.9344416   .1596424    -5.85   0.000    -1.247335   -.6215481
         L4. |  -.6639759   .1572085    -4.22   0.000    -.9720989    -.355853
         L5. |  -.8084542   .1656516    -4.88   0.000    -1.133125   -.4837831
         L6. |  -1.193927   .1213382    -9.84   0.000    -1.431746   -.9561085
         L7. |  -.2194947   .1117564    -1.96   0.050    -.4385334   -.0004561
         L8. |  -.2026368   .1589823    -1.27   0.202    -.5142364    .1089629
         L9. |  -.7612179   .1991493    -3.82   0.000    -1.151543   -.3708924
        L10. |  -.0887477   .1811454    -0.49   0.624    -.4437862    .2662908
        L11. |  -.2091553    .163106    -1.28   0.200    -.5288372    .1105266
        L12. |  -.3485619   .1100599    -3.17   0.002    -.5642754   -.1328485
      lnbexp |
         L1. |  -5.725057   3.410359    -1.68   0.093    -12.40924    .9591243
         L2. |   -1.82304   3.781852    -0.48   0.630    -9.235334    5.589253
         L3. |  -.2719273    2.65412    -0.10   0.918    -5.473908    4.930053
         L4. |  -7.196564   2.603998    -2.76   0.006    -12.30031   -2.092822
         L5. |   2.771822   3.302058     0.84   0.401    -3.700093    9.243736
         L6. |  -10.17948   3.533852    -2.88   0.004     -17.1057   -3.253259
         L7. |  -4.785867   3.344219    -1.43   0.152    -11.34042    1.768682
         L8. |   3.657102   3.746315     0.98   0.329    -3.685541    10.99975
         L9. |   1.557251   4.058321     0.38   0.701    -6.396913    9.511414
        L10. |   5.304646   2.405891     2.20   0.027     .5891855    10.02011
        L11. |   2.924313   2.647604     1.10   0.269    -2.264896    8.113522
        L12. |  -2.964707   2.952795    -1.00   0.315    -8.752078    2.822665
    fdlngexp |
         L1. |  -3.046546   5.928889    -0.51   0.607    -14.66696    8.573863
         L2. |  -25.84756   5.837464    -4.43   0.000    -37.28878   -14.40634
         L3. |  -23.73131   6.005311    -3.95   0.000     -35.5015   -11.96111
         L4. |  -26.88103   7.478916    -3.59   0.000    -41.53944   -12.22263
         L5. |  -41.61857   8.980194    -4.63   0.000    -59.21943   -24.01771
         L6. |   -29.4684   7.165929    -4.11   0.000    -43.51337   -15.42344
         L7. |  -43.15892   7.631836    -5.66   0.000    -58.11704    -28.2008
         L8. |  -42.55015    7.37081    -5.77   0.000    -56.99667   -28.10363
         L9. |  -31.23207    6.13165    -5.09   0.000    -43.24988   -19.21426
        L10. |   -38.3765    6.09425    -6.30   0.000    -50.32101   -26.43199
        L11. |  -38.70502   5.426181    -7.13   0.000    -49.34014    -28.0699
        L12. |  -8.621047   4.486497    -1.92   0.055    -17.41442    .1723261
fdexpected~e |
         L1. |   872.7596   245.5316     3.55   0.000     391.5266    1353.993
         L2. |  -227.3521    228.041    -1.00   0.319    -674.3042    219.6001
         L3. |   862.2463   240.2407     3.59   0.000     391.3832    1333.109
         L4. |    138.869   202.7026     0.69   0.493    -258.4208    536.1589
         L5. |   -574.998   218.4488    -2.63   0.008     -1003.15   -146.8462
         L6. |   444.6775    181.944     2.44   0.015     88.07378    801.2812
         L7. |   176.8615   203.2865     0.87   0.384    -221.5727    575.2957
         L8. |  -682.8955    222.769    -3.07   0.002    -1119.515   -246.2764
         L9. |  -569.1279   249.5794    -2.28   0.023    -1058.294   -79.96131
        L10. |   66.00662   227.4717     0.29   0.772    -379.8298    511.8431
        L11. |  -1103.053   228.7713    -4.82   0.000    -1551.436   -654.6691
        L12. |   309.7831   233.8177     1.32   0.185    -148.4912    768.0575
     repconv |   233.4281   104.7341     2.23   0.026     28.15305    438.7032
     demconv |  -480.9867   76.79117    -6.26   0.000    -631.4946   -330.4787
     debate1 |   158.1885   44.10544     3.59   0.000     71.74338    244.6335
     debate2 |  -11.85971   73.94279    -0.16   0.873    -156.7849    133.0655
     debate3 |  -7.976767   44.01793    -0.18   0.856    -94.25033    78.29679
    latesept |  -194.3779   29.33051    -6.63   0.000    -251.8647   -136.8912
    lastweek |  -23.19448    90.5437    -0.26   0.798    -200.6569    154.2679
       _cons |   1915.894   388.0988     4.94   0.000     1155.235    2676.554
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lnbexp       |
   fdposbush |
         L1. |   .0014263   .0024028     0.59   0.553    -.0032831    .0061358
         L2. |   .0156175   .0029477     5.30   0.000       .00984    .0213949
         L3. |   .0090266   .0025525     3.54   0.000     .0040238    .0140295
         L4. |   .0107881   .0024725     4.36   0.000     .0059422    .0156341
         L5. |   .0127106   .0024306     5.23   0.000     .0079466    .0174746
         L6. |   .0067787   .0025636     2.64   0.008     .0017543    .0118032
         L7. |   .0044958   .0030056     1.50   0.135     -.001395    .0103867
         L8. |    .012679   .0020966     6.05   0.000     .0085697    .0167882
         L9. |  -.0034322   .0019518    -1.76   0.079    -.0072576    .0003933
        L10. |  -.0038806   .0022151    -1.75   0.080    -.0082221    .0004609
        L11. |   -.008453   .0019937    -4.24   0.000    -.0123606   -.0045454
        L12. |  -.0005018    .001553    -0.32   0.747    -.0035457    .0025421
   fdposgore |
         L1. |   .0007496   .0017983     0.42   0.677    -.0027751    .0042743
         L2. |   .0142651   .0020921     6.82   0.000     .0101646    .0183656
         L3. |   .0032455   .0013805     2.35   0.019     .0005398    .0059511
         L4. |   .0045201   .0016752     2.70   0.007     .0012368    .0078033
         L5. |   .0091206   .0016746     5.45   0.000     .0058385    .0124028
         L6. |   .0035944   .0018873     1.90   0.057    -.0001046    .0072933
         L7. |   .0003114   .0015626     0.20   0.842    -.0027514    .0033741
         L8. |   .0036199   .0016366     2.21   0.027     .0004122    .0068277
         L9. |   .0004897   .0017325     0.28   0.777     -.002906    .0038853
        L10. |   .0008829   .0018064     0.49   0.625    -.0026575    .0044234
        L11. |  -.0064501   .0017539    -3.68   0.000    -.0098877   -.0030124
        L12. |   .0007326   .0014063     0.52   0.602    -.0020237     .003489
     negbush |
         L1. |   .0032935   .0037955     0.87   0.386    -.0041456    .0107326
         L2. |  -.0170153   .0045756    -3.72   0.000    -.0259832   -.0080473
         L3. |  -.0208716   .0040134    -5.20   0.000    -.0287376   -.0130055
         L4. |  -.0232532   .0038894    -5.98   0.000    -.0308764   -.0156301
         L5. |  -.0153875   .0034435    -4.47   0.000    -.0221367   -.0086384
         L6. |  -.0055004   .0032426    -1.70   0.090    -.0118558    .0008549
         L7. |  -.0130839   .0043398    -3.01   0.003    -.0215898   -.0045781
         L8. |  -.0283045   .0033105    -8.55   0.000    -.0347929   -.0218161
         L9. |    .011824   .0037776     3.13   0.002     .0044201    .0192279
        L10. |   .0132311   .0043242     3.06   0.002     .0047559    .0217063
        L11. |   .0046143   .0048652     0.95   0.343    -.0049213    .0141499
        L12. |  -.0042228   .0045753    -0.92   0.356    -.0131902    .0047446
   fdneggore |
         L1. |   .0044734   .0055101     0.81   0.417    -.0063262    .0152729
         L2. |  -.0227944    .006546    -3.48   0.000    -.0356244   -.0099644
         L3. |  -.0058032   .0051409    -1.13   0.259    -.0158792    .0042728
         L4. |   .0088701   .0050625     1.75   0.080    -.0010523    .0187925
         L5. |  -.0170058   .0053344    -3.19   0.001    -.0274611   -.0065505
         L6. |   .0109054   .0039074     2.79   0.005      .003247    .0185638
         L7. |    .017698   .0035989     4.92   0.000     .0106444    .0247516
         L8. |      .0014   .0051197     0.27   0.785    -.0086344    .0114343
         L9. |   .0058241   .0064131     0.91   0.364    -.0067455    .0183936
        L10. |  -.0076059   .0058334    -1.30   0.192    -.0190391    .0038273
        L11. |  -.0007081   .0052525    -0.13   0.893    -.0110028    .0095865
        L12. |  -.0117572   .0035442    -3.32   0.001    -.0187038   -.0048107
      lnbexp |
         L1. |  -.2450286   .1098228    -2.23   0.026    -.4602774   -.0297798
         L2. |   -.256417   .1217859    -2.11   0.035     -.495113    -.017721
         L3. |  -.5465821   .0854699    -6.40   0.000       -.7141   -.3790643
         L4. |  -.1415887   .0838558    -1.69   0.091     -.305943    .0227657
         L5. |  -.1465497   .1063352    -1.38   0.168    -.3549629    .0618635
         L6. |  -.2056233   .1137996    -1.81   0.071    -.4286664    .0174199
         L7. |  -.0127761   .1076929    -0.12   0.906    -.2238503    .1982982
         L8. |  -.0281493   .1206415    -0.23   0.816    -.2646024    .2083037
         L9. |  -.3671697    .130689    -2.81   0.005    -.6233154   -.1110241
        L10. |  -.1063461   .0774762    -1.37   0.170    -.2581967    .0455045
        L11. |   -.557379     .08526    -6.54   0.000    -.7244856   -.3902724
        L12. |  -.5671753    .095088    -5.96   0.000    -.7535444   -.3808063
    fdlngexp |
         L1. |  -.3180696   .1909263    -1.67   0.096    -.6922784    .0561391
         L2. |  -.8815724   .1879822    -4.69   0.000    -1.250011   -.5131341
         L3. |  -.3723999   .1933873    -1.93   0.054    -.7514321    .0066323
         L4. |     .12323   .2408414     0.51   0.609    -.3488105    .5952704
         L5. |    .475263   .2891866     1.64   0.100    -.0915324    1.042058
         L6. |   .2651032   .2307624     1.15   0.251    -.1871827    .7173892
         L7. |   .6102834   .2457658     2.48   0.013     .1285912    1.091976
         L8. |   .3240132   .2373601     1.37   0.172     -.141204    .7892305
         L9. |   .4192482   .1974558     2.12   0.034      .032242    .8062544
        L10. |   .7440426   .1962514     3.79   0.000      .359397    1.128688
        L11. |   .1338526   .1747377     0.77   0.444    -.2086271    .4763322
        L12. |   .3111828   .1444774     2.15   0.031     .0280124    .5943533
fdexpected~e |
         L1. |  -31.77897   7.906782    -4.02   0.000    -47.27598   -16.28196
         L2. |   -48.5877   7.343539    -6.62   0.000    -62.98078   -34.19463
         L3. |  -23.42227   7.736402    -3.03   0.002    -38.58534   -8.259195
         L4. |  -14.13931   6.527574    -2.17   0.030    -26.93312   -1.345496
         L5. |   10.99286   7.034645     1.56   0.118    -2.794785    24.78051
         L6. |   16.18914   5.859091     2.76   0.006     4.705528    27.67274
         L7. |   2.725335   6.546376     0.42   0.677    -10.10533      15.556
         L8. |  -1.426623   7.173765    -0.20   0.842    -15.48694     12.6337
         L9. |  -.7277589   8.037132    -0.09   0.928    -16.48025    15.02473
        L10. |   -16.0746   7.325208    -2.19   0.028    -30.43174   -1.717457
        L11. |  -18.19705   7.367058    -2.47   0.014    -32.63622   -3.757886
        L12. |  -6.031427   7.529566    -0.80   0.423    -20.78911    8.726251
     repconv |   2.976058   3.372722     0.88   0.378    -3.634356    9.586472
     demconv |   3.305424   2.472884     1.34   0.181    -1.541339    8.152188
     debate1 |  -1.571407   1.420315    -1.11   0.269    -4.355173    1.212359
     debate2 |   3.030198   2.381159     1.27   0.203    -1.636787    7.697183
     debate3 |   6.307807   1.417497     4.45   0.000     3.529564     9.08605
    latesept |  -4.343477   .9445221    -4.60   0.000    -6.194706   -2.492248
    lastweek |   15.22181   2.915753     5.22   0.000     9.507043    20.93658
       _cons |   48.37793   12.49783     3.87   0.000     23.88263    72.87324
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
fdlngexp     |
   fdposbush |
         L1. |  -.0015345   .0010455    -1.47   0.142    -.0035835    .0005146
         L2. |  -.0030637   .0012826    -2.39   0.017    -.0055774   -.0005499
         L3. |  -.0033151   .0011106    -2.98   0.003    -.0054918   -.0011384
         L4. |   -.001886   .0010758    -1.75   0.080    -.0039944    .0002225
         L5. |   .0036848   .0010576     3.48   0.000      .001612    .0057576
         L6. |   .0046277   .0011154     4.15   0.000     .0024416    .0068138
         L7. |   .0076959   .0013077     5.88   0.000     .0051328     .010259
         L8. |   .0011106   .0009122     1.22   0.223    -.0006773    .0028985
         L9. |   .0031947   .0008492     3.76   0.000     .0015302    .0048591
        L10. |   .0038206   .0009638     3.96   0.000     .0019317    .0057096
        L11. |   .0044195   .0008675     5.09   0.000     .0027193    .0061197
        L12. |   .0020253   .0006757     3.00   0.003     .0007009    .0033497
   fdposgore |
         L1. |  -.0023676   .0007824    -3.03   0.002    -.0039012    -.000834
         L2. |  -.0054844   .0009103    -6.02   0.000    -.0072685   -.0037003
         L3. |  -.0026299   .0006006    -4.38   0.000    -.0038072   -.0014527
         L4. |   .0008224   .0007289     1.13   0.259    -.0006061     .002251
         L5. |  -.0021398   .0007286    -2.94   0.003    -.0035679   -.0007118
         L6. |   -.004728   .0008211    -5.76   0.000    -.0063374   -.0031186
         L7. |  -.0015617   .0006799    -2.30   0.022    -.0028943   -.0002291
         L8. |  -.0036392   .0007121    -5.11   0.000    -.0050349   -.0022435
         L9. |  -.0054665   .0007538    -7.25   0.000     -.006944   -.0039891
        L10. |  -.0020589   .0007859    -2.62   0.009    -.0035993   -.0005185
        L11. |   -.000483   .0007631    -0.63   0.527    -.0019788    .0010127
        L12. |   .0004443   .0006119     0.73   0.468     -.000755    .0016435
     negbush |
         L1. |   .0053427   .0016514     3.24   0.001     .0021059    .0085794
         L2. |   .0039102   .0019908     1.96   0.050     8.24e-06    .0078121
         L3. |    .001586   .0017462     0.91   0.364    -.0018365    .0050085
         L4. |   .0067834   .0016923     4.01   0.000     .0034665    .0101002
         L5. |  -.0053635   .0014983    -3.58   0.000       -.0083    -.002427
         L6. |  -.0101241   .0014108    -7.18   0.000    -.0128893   -.0073589
         L7. |   -.009673   .0018882    -5.12   0.000    -.0133738   -.0059721
         L8. |   .0045549   .0014404     3.16   0.002     .0017318     .007378
         L9. |  -.0063092   .0016436    -3.84   0.000    -.0095307   -.0030878
        L10. |  -.0153943   .0018814    -8.18   0.000    -.0190818   -.0117067
        L11. |  -.0027725   .0021168    -1.31   0.190    -.0069214    .0013764
        L12. |   .0053637   .0019907     2.69   0.007      .001462    .0092654
   fdneggore |
         L1. |  -.0058538   .0023974    -2.44   0.015    -.0105526    -.001155
         L2. |   .0086586   .0028482     3.04   0.002     .0030764    .0142409
         L3. |    .006926   .0022368     3.10   0.002      .002542    .0113101
         L4. |  -.0045266   .0022027    -2.06   0.040    -.0088438   -.0002094
         L5. |   .0001437    .002321     0.06   0.951    -.0044053    .0046928
         L6. |   .0054523   .0017001     3.21   0.001     .0021201    .0087844
         L7. |  -.0013905   .0015659    -0.89   0.375    -.0044595    .0016785
         L8. |   .0051269   .0022275     2.30   0.021      .000761    .0094928
         L9. |   .0114769   .0027903     4.11   0.000     .0060079    .0169458
        L10. |   .0012273   .0025381     0.48   0.629    -.0037473    .0062018
        L11. |  -.0001865   .0022853    -0.08   0.935    -.0046657    .0042926
        L12. |   .0042753   .0015421     2.77   0.006     .0012529    .0072977
      lnbexp |
         L1. |  -.2725738   .0477835    -5.70   0.000    -.3662278   -.1789198
         L2. |  -.4007699   .0529886    -7.56   0.000    -.5046256   -.2969141
         L3. |  -.1127178   .0371876    -3.03   0.002    -.1856042   -.0398314
         L4. |   .1141928   .0364854     3.13   0.002     .0426829    .1857028
         L5. |    .036328   .0462661     0.79   0.432    -.0543519    .1270078
         L6. |  -.2269078   .0495138    -4.58   0.000     -.323953   -.1298625
         L7. |     .07834   .0468568     1.67   0.095    -.0134977    .1701776
         L8. |   .1007448   .0524907     1.92   0.055    -.0021351    .2036246
         L9. |   .1063018   .0568623     1.87   0.062    -.0051462    .2177499
        L10. |  -.2496189   .0337096    -7.40   0.000    -.3156886   -.1835493
        L11. |  -.3342557   .0370963    -9.01   0.000    -.4069631   -.2615482
        L12. |  -.1470427   .0413724    -3.55   0.000    -.2281312   -.0659542
    fdlngexp |
         L1. |  -.7696098   .0830714    -9.26   0.000    -.9324267   -.6067929
         L2. |  -.2968073   .0817904    -3.63   0.000    -.4571135   -.1365011
         L3. |  -.6039453   .0841421    -7.18   0.000    -.7688609   -.4390298
         L4. |  -.8138918   .1047892    -7.77   0.000    -1.019275   -.6085087
         L5. |  -.9511084   .1258241    -7.56   0.000    -1.197719   -.7044978
         L6. |  -.7618498   .1004039    -7.59   0.000    -.9586377   -.5650618
         L7. |  -.6393232   .1069318    -5.98   0.000    -.8489057   -.4297407
         L8. |  -.5521087   .1032745    -5.35   0.000     -.754523   -.3496943
         L9. |  -.2406879   .0859123    -2.80   0.005    -.4090729   -.0723029
        L10. |   .0139139   .0853883     0.16   0.871     -.153444    .1812718
        L11. |   .1255573   .0760278     1.65   0.099    -.0234544    .2745689
        L12. |   .1863812   .0628616     2.96   0.003     .0631748    .3095877
fdexpected~e |
         L1. |  -2.835886   3.440213    -0.82   0.410    -9.578579    3.906807
         L2. |  -2.307549   3.195148    -0.72   0.470    -8.569923    3.954825
         L3. |  -25.19224   3.366081    -7.48   0.000    -31.78964   -18.59484
         L4. |  -24.09563   2.840124    -8.48   0.000    -29.66217   -18.52908
         L5. |  -19.84836   3.060749    -6.48   0.000    -25.84732    -13.8494
         L6. |  -13.96088   2.549269    -5.48   0.000    -18.95736   -8.964404
         L7. |  -.3291932   2.848305    -0.12   0.908    -5.911768    5.253382
         L8. |  -3.683933   3.121279    -1.18   0.238    -9.801528    2.433662
         L9. |  -26.35943   3.496928    -7.54   0.000    -33.21328   -19.50558
        L10. |  -5.149727   3.187172    -1.62   0.106    -11.39647    1.097015
        L11. |   1.571048   3.205381     0.49   0.624    -4.711382    7.853479
        L12. |   21.27296   3.276087     6.49   0.000     14.85195    27.69397
     repconv |  -1.198734   1.467459    -0.82   0.414    -4.074901    1.677434
     demconv |   3.715961   1.075943     3.45   0.001     1.607151    5.824771
     debate1 |    1.46105   .6179739     2.36   0.018     .2498431    2.672256
     debate2 |  -4.276978   1.036034    -4.13   0.000    -6.307566   -2.246389
     debate3 |   .7466527   .6167478     1.21   0.226    -.4621508    1.955456
    latesept |  -1.274444   .4109582    -3.10   0.002    -2.079907   -.4689808
    lastweek |   .1556318   1.268634     0.12   0.902    -2.330844    2.642108
       _cons |   51.30801   5.437763     9.44   0.000     40.65019    61.96583
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
fdexpected~e |
   fdposbush |
         L1. |   .0001279   .0000278     4.61   0.000     .0000735    .0001823
         L2. |   .0001277    .000034     3.75   0.000      .000061    .0001944
         L3. |   .0000172   .0000295     0.58   0.559    -.0000406     .000075
         L4. |   .0000107   .0000286     0.37   0.708    -.0000453    .0000667
         L5. |   -.000075   .0000281    -2.67   0.008      -.00013     -.00002
         L6. |  -.0000953   .0000296    -3.22   0.001    -.0001534   -.0000373
         L7. |  -.0000633   .0000347    -1.82   0.068    -.0001313    4.75e-06
         L8. |  -5.22e-06   .0000242    -0.22   0.829    -.0000527    .0000422
         L9. |  -.0001289   .0000225    -5.72   0.000    -.0001731   -.0000847
        L10. |  -.0001703   .0000256    -6.66   0.000    -.0002205   -.0001202
        L11. |   -.000076    .000023    -3.30   0.001    -.0001211   -.0000309
        L12. |  -8.43e-06   .0000179    -0.47   0.638    -.0000436    .0000267
   fdposgore |
         L1. |    .000158   .0000208     7.61   0.000     .0001173    .0001987
         L2. |   .0001565   .0000242     6.48   0.000     .0001092    .0002039
         L3. |   .0000221   .0000159     1.39   0.165    -9.11e-06    .0000534
         L4. |   .0000879   .0000193     4.54   0.000       .00005    .0001258
         L5. |   .0001127   .0000193     5.83   0.000     .0000748    .0001506
         L6. |   .0001708   .0000218     7.84   0.000     .0001281    .0002136
         L7. |   .0001251    .000018     6.93   0.000     .0000897    .0001604
         L8. |   .0000794   .0000189     4.20   0.000     .0000423    .0001164
         L9. |  -6.08e-06     .00002    -0.30   0.761    -.0000453    .0000331
        L10. |  -.0001213   .0000209    -5.81   0.000    -.0001622   -.0000804
        L11. |   -.000165   .0000203    -8.14   0.000    -.0002047   -.0001253
        L12. |  -.0000992   .0000162    -6.11   0.000     -.000131   -.0000673
     negbush |
         L1. |  -.0001208   .0000438    -2.76   0.006    -.0002067   -.0000349
         L2. |  -.0002027   .0000528    -3.84   0.000    -.0003063   -.0000992
         L3. |  -.0002175   .0000464    -4.69   0.000    -.0003083   -.0001266
         L4. |  -.0002412   .0000449    -5.37   0.000    -.0003292   -.0001531
         L5. |   .0000407   .0000398     1.02   0.306    -.0000372    .0001187
         L6. |   .0000278   .0000374     0.74   0.457    -.0000456    .0001012
         L7. |   -.000227   .0000501    -4.53   0.000    -.0003253   -.0001288
         L8. |  -.0001718   .0000382    -4.49   0.000    -.0002467   -.0000968
         L9. |   .0002141   .0000436     4.91   0.000     .0001286    .0002997
        L10. |   .0001578   .0000499     3.16   0.002     .0000599    .0002557
        L11. |  -.0002353   .0000562    -4.19   0.000    -.0003455   -.0001252
        L12. |  -.0003236   .0000528    -6.12   0.000    -.0004272     -.00022
   fdneggore |
         L1. |  -.0004831   .0000636    -7.59   0.000    -.0006078   -.0003583
         L2. |  -.0004043   .0000756    -5.35   0.000    -.0005525   -.0002562
         L3. |   -.000015   .0000594    -0.25   0.800    -.0001314    .0001013
         L4. |  -.0000283   .0000585    -0.48   0.628    -.0001429    .0000863
         L5. |  -.0000405   .0000616    -0.66   0.511    -.0001613    .0000802
         L6. |   .0000492   .0000451     1.09   0.276    -.0000393    .0001376
         L7. |  -7.31e-06   .0000416    -0.18   0.860    -.0000888    .0000742
         L8. |   .0000372   .0000591     0.63   0.529    -.0000787    .0001531
         L9. |   .0000532   .0000741     0.72   0.473     -.000092    .0001983
        L10. |   .0000432   .0000674     0.64   0.521    -.0000888    .0001753
        L11. |   .0000831   .0000607     1.37   0.171    -.0000358     .000202
        L12. |   .0000169   .0000409     0.41   0.679    -.0000633    .0000972
      lnbexp |
         L1. |   .0060128   .0012684     4.74   0.000     .0035268    .0084987
         L2. |   .0036368   .0014065     2.59   0.010       .00088    .0063935
         L3. |  -.0021474   .0009871    -2.18   0.030    -.0040821   -.0002128
         L4. |   -.003481   .0009685    -3.59   0.000    -.0053792   -.0015829
         L5. |  -.0035851   .0012281    -2.92   0.004    -.0059921   -.0011781
         L6. |   .0025464   .0013143     1.94   0.053    -.0000296    .0051223
         L7. |  -.0028159   .0012438    -2.26   0.024    -.0052536   -.0003781
         L8. |  -.0050364   .0013933    -3.61   0.000    -.0077673   -.0023056
         L9. |  -.0013452   .0015094    -0.89   0.373    -.0043034    .0016131
        L10. |   .0002183   .0008948     0.24   0.807    -.0015355     .001972
        L11. |   .0017889   .0009847     1.82   0.069     -.000141    .0037189
        L12. |  -.0016342   .0010982    -1.49   0.137    -.0037866    .0005182
    fdlngexp |
         L1. |  -.0061389    .002205    -2.78   0.005    -.0104607   -.0018171
         L2. |  -.0131107    .002171    -6.04   0.000    -.0173658   -.0088555
         L3. |  -.0029034   .0022335    -1.30   0.194    -.0072809    .0014741
         L4. |   .0195143   .0027815     7.02   0.000     .0140626     .024966
         L5. |   .0297131   .0033399     8.90   0.000     .0231671    .0362592
         L6. |   .0175894   .0026651     6.60   0.000     .0123659     .022813
         L7. |   .0199815   .0028384     7.04   0.000     .0144183    .0255446
         L8. |   .0145658   .0027413     5.31   0.000     .0091929    .0199387
         L9. |   .0158064   .0022805     6.93   0.000     .0113368     .020276
        L10. |   .0096603   .0022665     4.26   0.000      .005218    .0141027
        L11. |    .000489   .0020181     0.24   0.809    -.0034663    .0044444
        L12. |  -.0025508   .0016686    -1.53   0.126    -.0058212    .0007196
fdexpected~e |
         L1. |  -.8206789    .091317    -8.99   0.000    -.9996569   -.6417009
         L2. |  -.5379415    .084812    -6.34   0.000      -.70417   -.3717131
         L3. |   .1569812   .0893492     1.76   0.079    -.0181401    .3321025
         L4. |   .4774543   .0753882     6.33   0.000      .329696    .6252125
         L5. |   .5305616   .0812445     6.53   0.000     .3713253    .6897979
         L6. |  -.4372485   .0676678    -6.46   0.000    -.5698749    -.304622
         L7. |  -.1977694   .0756054    -2.62   0.009    -.3459532   -.0495855
         L8. |   .0445722   .0828512     0.54   0.591    -.1178132    .2069576
         L9. |   .2499052   .0928224     2.69   0.007     .0679766    .4318338
        L10. |   .0603816   .0846003     0.71   0.475    -.1054318    .2261951
        L11. |  -.0226142   .0850836    -0.27   0.790     -.189375    .1441466
        L12. |  -.2693793   .0869604    -3.10   0.002    -.4398187     -.09894
     repconv |   .0970706   .0389522     2.49   0.013     .0207256    .1734156
     demconv |   .0701897   .0285598     2.46   0.014     .0142134    .1261659
     debate1 |  -.1751001   .0164035   -10.67   0.000    -.2072503   -.1429498
     debate2 |   .0665384   .0275005     2.42   0.016     .0126384    .1204383
     debate3 |  -.0904035    .016371    -5.52   0.000      -.12249   -.0583171
    latesept |  -.0666352   .0109085    -6.11   0.000    -.0880155    -.045255
    lastweek |   .1076203   .0336746     3.20   0.001     .0416193    .1736213
       _cons |  -.1389913     .14434    -0.96   0.336    -.4218924    .1439098
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. vargranger

   Granger causality Wald tests
  +------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |          Equation           Excluded |   chi2     df Prob > chi2 |
  |--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
  |         fdposbush          fdposgore |  79.954    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposbush            negbush |  154.82    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposbush          fdneggore |  115.83    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposbush             lnbexp |  249.84    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposbush           fdlngexp |  193.39    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposbush     fdexpectedvote |  145.33    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposbush                ALL |  1143.7    72    0.000    |
  |--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
  |         fdposgore          fdposbush |  149.01    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposgore            negbush |  169.17    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposgore          fdneggore |  161.09    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposgore             lnbexp |  193.12    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposgore           fdlngexp |  100.69    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposgore     fdexpectedvote |  153.37    12    0.000    |
  |         fdposgore                ALL |  765.38    72    0.000    |
  |--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
  |           negbush          fdposbush |   183.6    12    0.000    |
  |           negbush          fdposgore |  86.919    12    0.000    |
  |           negbush          fdneggore |  105.02    12    0.000    |
  |           negbush             lnbexp |  149.94    12    0.000    |
  |           negbush           fdlngexp |  127.15    12    0.000    |
  |           negbush     fdexpectedvote |  157.51    12    0.000    |
  |           negbush                ALL |  1318.8    72    0.000    |
  |--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
  |         fdneggore          fdposbush |  60.469    12    0.000    |
  |         fdneggore          fdposgore |  103.17    12    0.000    |
  |         fdneggore            negbush |  83.012    12    0.000    |
  |         fdneggore             lnbexp |  65.605    12    0.000    |
  |         fdneggore           fdlngexp |  67.357    12    0.000    |
  |         fdneggore     fdexpectedvote |  66.683    12    0.000    |
  |         fdneggore                ALL |  693.38    72    0.000    |
  |--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
  |            lnbexp          fdposbush |   112.5    12    0.000    |
  |            lnbexp          fdposgore |  116.09    12    0.000    |
  |            lnbexp            negbush |  176.94    12    0.000    |
  |            lnbexp          fdneggore |  143.39    12    0.000    |
  |            lnbexp           fdlngexp |  69.846    12    0.000    |
  |            lnbexp     fdexpectedvote |  67.727    12    0.000    |
  |            lnbexp                ALL |   712.8    72    0.000    |
  |--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
  |          fdlngexp          fdposbush |  112.19    12    0.000    |
  |          fdlngexp          fdposgore |  174.97    12    0.000    |
  |          fdlngexp            negbush |  255.67    12    0.000    |
  |          fdlngexp          fdneggore |  103.55    12    0.000    |
  |          fdlngexp             lnbexp |   239.9    12    0.000    |
  |          fdlngexp     fdexpectedvote |  310.14    12    0.000    |
  |          fdlngexp                ALL |  1680.1    72    0.000    |
  |--------------------------------------+---------------------------|
  |    fdexpectedvote          fdposbush |  77.759    12    0.000    |
  |    fdexpectedvote          fdposgore |  208.84    12    0.000    |
  |    fdexpectedvote            negbush |  119.44    12    0.000    |
  |    fdexpectedvote          fdneggore |  128.44    12    0.000    |
  |    fdexpectedvote             lnbexp |  96.062    12    0.000    |
  |    fdexpectedvote           fdlngexp |   231.7    12    0.000    |
  |    fdexpectedvote                ALL |  667.33    72    0.000    |
  +------------------------------------------------------------------+


